Прогноз курса тенге на 2016 год



Низкие цены на нефть нанесли сокрушительный удар по позициям казахстанской валюты.

В декабре текущего года стоимость тенге достигла минимального значения за всю историю. Кроме того, негативное воздействие оказывает замедление экономик двух ключевых партнеров Казахстана – РФ и Китая. Прогноз курса тенге на 2016 год не обещает улучшения ситуации, предупреждают аналитики, сохраняется вероятность дальнейшей девальвации тенге.

Конец стабильности

Нефтяные котировки определяют динамику экономики Казахстана. Экспорт нефти обеспечивает львиную долю поступлений в бюджет и приток валютной выручки. Длительное время Казахстану удавалось удерживать курс национальной валюты, несмотря на падение цен до 50 долл./барр. Однако в конце августа 2015 года Национальный банк был вынужден перейти к плавающему курсу, после чего началась девальвация тенге.

С августа по декабрь стоимость доллара увеличилась практически в два раза – со 188 до 322 тенге. В ноябре был отправлен в отставку глава Нацбанка Кайрат Келимбетов, однако это не помогло восстановить доверие граждан к национальной валюте. Бизнес и население стремятся переводить сбережения в доллары, что оказывает дополнительное давление на тенге.

Помимо обвала цен на нефть, Казахстан вынужден реагировать на изменение валютных курсов своих ключевых партнеров – России и Китая. Рубль и юань потеряли свою стоимость в 2015 году, что ухудшило позиции казахстанских предпринимателей на внешних рынках. Также увеличился поток дешевого импорта, который вытеснял национальных производителей с внутреннего рынка.

В 2016 году не произойдет улучшения ситуации, считают эксперты. Внешняя среда останется негативной, что не позволит укрепиться тенге. Однако неконтролируемой девальвации удастся избежать.

Неутешительные прогнозы

 Представитель Уральского центра РИСИ Максим Лихачев прогнозирует сохранение негативных тенденций для экономики Казахстана. Спрос на основные экспортные товары – нефть и металлы - будет оставаться на низком уровне. При этом сохранится высокая волатильность на сырьевых рынках. Частично компенсировать свои потери Казахстан сможет за счет расширения сотрудничества в рамках ЕАЭС. В том числе политика импортозамещения, которую осуществляет Россия, позволит увеличить экспорт продукции.

Среднегодовой курс не превысит нынешней отметки, считает Лихачев. Тенге закрепится в диапазоне 300-320 тенге/долл. после стабилизации валютного рынка

Аналитик Валерий Полховский допускает повышение курса до 330 тенге/долл., если нефтяные котировки опустятся до 30 долл./барр. Ранее такую стоимость нефти в среднесрочной перспективе прогнозировал президент республики Нурсултан Назарбаев.

Более пессимистичный прогноз курса тенге к доллару на 2016 год сделали эксперты Saxo Bank. Помимо нефти, позиции казахстанской валюты будет ослаблять повышение ставки ФРС. В результате стоимость доллара достигнет 350-375 тенге.

Улучшить позиции тенге может изменение тенденций на нефтяном рынке во втором полугодии 2016 года. Эксперты ожидают частичное восстановление цен на “черное золото”, если не последует новых потрясений для рынка. Сокращение инвестиций в нефтедобычу отразится на снижении предложения, что приведет к стабилизации и постепенному росту цен. В таком случае Казахстану удастся удержать курс тенге на нынешнем уровне. Кроме того, приватизация госимущества и приток иностранных инвестиций укрепят валютный рынок и станут факторами поддержки стоимости тенге.

Негативный сценарий предполагает дальнейшее снижение котировок, которые в краткосрочной перспективе могут снизиться до 20 долл./барр. В таких условиях дальнейшая девальвации станет неизбежной, и стоимость тенге обновит свой антирекорд в 2016 году.

В 2015 году курс тенге обвалился практически в два раза и достиг 322 тенге/долл. К этому привели низкие цены на нефть и замедление экономик основных торговых партнеров Казахстана. В следующем году тенге в лучшем случае сохранит позиции. Пессимистичный сценарии, который предполагает дальнейшее снижение нефтяных котировок, приведет к росту курса доллара до 350-375 тенге/долл.






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you can delight in these take advantage of a variety of its
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today focus on cleaning the private component of the physical body, a few of
them also deal with the fingertip of vaginal misuse and also other debris.
With the help of the same remedy provided by the firm,
you may take care of each all at once. With the aid of the non-reusable feminine care
pads, it assists you eliminate all the unsafe bacteria that leads to
the disease. These pads are made out of plastic,
fabric or Terry cloth, each one of which are actually quick
and easy to take care of and clean. You may dispose of these pads in a
trash receptacle positioned near the door, or you can easily melt them.



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body system, feminine hygiene options also give you with ways to manage the acne trouble.
When you are dealing with acne troubles, it is crucial to apply anti-acne product for
the greatest result. Considering that there is a
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on the surface and around the eyes. Along with delicate skin,
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facial skin, there are actually face cover-ups.

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What are fashion trend bags? They are actually little ladies handbags generally made from
fabric that is brought all around with an available cover.
The bags come in numerous sizes and shapes and can be low-cost or
even fairly expensive. They are typically constructed from towel so they must be tough and also sturdy, but
they can easily also be created from man-made materials.



A manner handbag, typically called a ladies handbag in North
American English, is actually an over-sized bag utilized to keep several personal items.
In the times before vehicles, folks brought all form of properties wrapped in coverings, under their
upper arms, or even in knapsacks. These bags, which were referred to as hobo bags, became a popular fashion trend accessory in the Victorian time.
In years past to today hobo bags are actually still utilized as add-ons.


Some girls prefer the sizable selection of shades accessible in a style
handbag. In fact, there are actually some bags that can be colored to match the colour of
a bag, shirt, or maybe a set of denims. These bags can additionally be actually brought in a
variety of methods. Some can be brought level; others may be carried
between the shoulder; as well as some also possess takes care of to ensure that the owner can easily tuck it into her bag.


Although a lot of the amount of time it is considered fashionable to possess
a big selection of bags, what definitely creates a style bag is the means it is brought.
In the times when these bags were actually sizable, they were usually continued the shoulders, along with the flap
folded over one shoulder. In recent times developers have enhanced the way that these bags are
actually held. Much of all of them now come with a
cover that is actually slung under the customer's armpit, generating a much smaller sized appeal.
A fantastic perk to possessing the covers slung
is that it permits you to hold the bag without must
take your arms away from the wallets.

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or zipper on the front end. Nevertheless, not all professional bags feature components or zippers.
It is vital to realize that nearly all professional bags,
whether they are actually named handbags or bags, will be made from materials besides genuine
natural leather. For example, some individuals favor
bags made coming from vinyl fabric due to the fact that
it is a lot more heavy duty than genuine leather-made.


There are actually lots of bags as well as bags that have actually been encouraged through popular fashion models.
The most popular of these is actually the Chanel bags.
Chanel has motivated designer bags as well as bags
for many years. The layouts of the bags are commonly really
distinct and also initial.

The most ideal location to discover a fashion trend ladies handbag or
purse is on series. On-line outlets that offer ladies
handbags and also handbags generally possess a considerably bigger choice than any kind of nearby shop can ever before have.
Online outlets are likewise often less expensive.
Yet another perk to purchasing online for your bags and also handbags is actually the
ability to conserve amount of money. By shopping internet you
can often receive the same high quality for a reduced
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Manner is actually a one-of-a-kind kind of freedom as well as self-expression at a offered opportunity and site and in a
offered context, of clothes, shoes, life, make-up, hairstyles, and also even body system posture.
In its broadest utilization, words proposes a type described by the apparel industry as what is actually well-liked currently.
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A haute couture is therefore consistently in steady change, responding to present events and regarded trends in pop culture.
Therefore, if a particular product of clothes is actually considered fashionable
today, it may no longer be attractive following full week.


The beginning of words, from the Greek, " fashion trends,"
which probably describes the reality that fashions are frequently being transformed or updated
to respond to cultural adjustments. The word origin of the word,
which can easily indicate "a change of designs," gives our
company even further ideas regarding its own resource.
It is actually thereby effortless to see why the condition has several spellings,
with some derivatives like" Fasch" and "Fashley.".



However, the best largely made use of derivation for the condition, that makes up eighty percent
of the Website with a variation of the punctuation, " styles," along with a take advantage of.
This enunciation is also located in the lessened variation of words, "ffeash." Regardless of these varieties,
it is actually crystal clear that manners are a collective term, put on a number of different things
generally classified as private and also individual. Within this write-up, we
will definitely appear closely at some of these groups:
fashion jewelry.

Fashion jewelry is actually generally defined as products of accessory utilized to adorn the body system, but
the etymology of words points to a Greek word meaning "of rocks." This term, faction, comes from
face, a site of the skins (a dwelling or area) and also etymology
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A meditator after that pays attention to an target or even a
scenario and seeks to achieve stillness, in addition to centering.
It is actually a technique developed away from Buddhist teachings, yet possesses its own origins strongly planted in Indian philosophical thought and feelings.

It could be exercised through anyone and also can easily give relief from a myriad
of upsetting and usually unbearable indicators
including stress, irritation, concern, depression, sorrow, pain, uneasyness, as well as sexuality.


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been identified by Ayurveda, the scientific research of
recuperation via the adjustment of bodily constructs. It is based on the concept, "What carries out certainly not kill our company, performs not create us endure." This
implies that in order to achieve health and wellness as well as wellness,
our team require to know to permit go of our bad reactions to day-to-day scenarios that can occasionally induce physical
reactions such as anger, anxiety, as well as stress.
With reflection, one can easily learn how to calm the body and mind, allowing the client to
free of cost on its own from the clutches of these problems.


Reflection anapanasati is commonly a treatment
included a handful of mins each, although longer
sessions may be included into a complete evening of metaphysical
musing. During the session, the anorectal location is completely cleaned
making use of a solution and treated oils.
For those that favor, a towel might be utilized.
No audio is actually allowed and also just sluggish, deep breathing takes place.


After cleansing the anorectal location, the next
action in the procedure is to concentrate on the breath.
Hereof, a significant pointer is actually to inhale gradually and greatly by means of your nostrils as
well as oral cavity, launching all pressure in the birth control and upper
body. One might use a mental or vocal concept to support in this process.
A lot of books and web sites provide in-depth guidelines.


The moment this has been obtained, a vision or even visualization are
going to be actually created. These can easily vary from pictures of florals, birds, a calm landscape, a
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to kick back as well as make it possible for the mind and body to rest.
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or various other nature-related graphics. Some might
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Some merely discover it valuable to focus on the breathing while
walking. Others require time to concentrate on the breathing spell
as well as imagine the thoughts, sounds, or emotions associated with the breathing.

Still others meditate to control their feelings as well as thought and feelings.



Different procedures are used to create a even more targeted attention, much deeper concentration, psychological alertness, as well as stillness.
There are actually numerous various sorts of led reflections.
Directed photos utilizes graphics that are identified
by the meditator. The graphics are actually related to relaxing or comforting sensations that are experienced in the physical
body. Aromatherapy uses specific aromas that are strongly
believed to generate good reactions. These meditations
are at times accompanied by sunny leisure as well as muscular tissue
relaxation.

Among one of the most common techniques to practice meditation is actually the body system browse.
This demands a individual to remain extremely still and
repair their attention on each part of the body system as they feel pleasant and experience the
experiences connected with that component of the physical body.
For example, the shoes may be actually quite rested when the individual experiences their possessions, and after that they may
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One more approach that is frequently used to
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